Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x819b…be22 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 31% −$11
sports 11% +$49
tech 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 124 +4.3% -5.7% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 7% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage133d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $409 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $211 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $403 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $389 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $176 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $356 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $418 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $420 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $181 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $405 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $433 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $399 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $404 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $391 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $403 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $30 15h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $201 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $201 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $218 31d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $218 34d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 44d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 44d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $171 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $171 45d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 45d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 45d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 45d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 46d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $199 46d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $199 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 47d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $204 48d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 48d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 48d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $203 48d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $203 48d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $226 48d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $226 49d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $166 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 388 history records