Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8194…5368 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$15
other 26% −$18
crypto 3% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 20% -21.0%
≤30d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 20% -21.0%
≤90d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 20% -21.0%
all 20 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 20% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 20% -21.0%
10% -32.0% 20% -28.5%
15% -38.6% 20% -35.4%
20% -44.6% 20% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$14 -68%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$6 -61%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 −$8 -13%
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +88%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +311%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$10 +69%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 32m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 44¢ $33 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes $0 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 37¢ $6 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 32¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 10h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal $4 10h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $20 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $53 10h
France vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $61 10h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 11¢ $9 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $10 10h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down $1 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $5 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records