Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8193…3581
crypto · 53 markets active 15h ago
0.0score
−$2,694 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,116 · open −$1,485
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,060
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$1,485
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage141d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 4 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $784 $304 −$481 (-61%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $300 $279 −$21 (-7%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $261 $239 −$22 (-8%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,199 $238 −$961 (-80%)
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $149 $0 −$149 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? No 1¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $255 $0 −$255 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $399 $0 −$399 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 07 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 06 $3 +$3 +89%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $195 −$87 -45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $302 −$134 -44%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $649 −$649 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 06 $388 +$456 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 04 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 04 $37 −$31 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 04 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 04 $8 +$12 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 04 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 04 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 04 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 04 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 04 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 24 $4 +$15 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 24 $16 −$6 -38%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $428 +$794 +186%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 18 $38 −$10 -26%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 17 $305 −$260 -85%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $149 −$149 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $249 −$195 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2? Mar 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 28 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $60 +$29 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 27 $69 −$10 -14%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Feb 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 27 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 27 $49 −$49 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $49 −$49 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $100 +$616 +618%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $249 −$249 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 67% −$2,267
world 22% +$219
crypto 10% −$488
other 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $85 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $105 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $104 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $105 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $43 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $189 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $210 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $90 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $210 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $95 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $105 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $99 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $6 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $273 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $105 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $311 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $81 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $129 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $123 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $210 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $40 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $54 46d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $99 62d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $79 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $89 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $17 64d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $17 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $95 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 32 -7.5% -16.3% 38% 34% -24.3%
all 49 -18.4% -26.1% 29% 27% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 27% -30.7%
10% -33.2% 24% -37.3%
15% -39.7% 24% -43.4%
20% -45.6% 22% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,059.87 · official $1,060.98 (match) · 190 history records