Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8192…0664
other · 904 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,919 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,889 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$1,889
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses118 / 773
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)891 / 904
History coverage163d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 13 History 891 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$23
14 days−$151
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 5¢ 4¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 4¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480? No 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +49%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $17 −$17 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $7 −$5 -69%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $7 −$4 -54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $8 +$9 +107%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh - Who wins the Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Malaysia vs China Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 02 $4 −$2 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -64%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 61m and 67m? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Brcko: Dusan Obradovic vs Josip Simundza Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
PAOK vs. Panathinaikos Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $27 −$15 -56%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $74 −$34 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $15 +$3 +21%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 23? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals - Who w May 27 $2 +$2 +95%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9.5m and 11m? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$665
sports 16% −$287
economics 14% −$381
world 10% −$31
politics 6% −$82
crypto 5% −$89
culture 4% −$249
tech 4% −$81
weather 1% −$48
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 8¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 21¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 12¢ $12 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $6 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $1 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 4¢ $4 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $11 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL No 1¢ $0 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 2¢ $0 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 4¢ $1 8h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 8¢ $2 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 4¢ $2 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 2¢ $2 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 7¢ $2 26h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 26h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 26h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 28h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 8¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 25% -56.3%
≤30d 141 -54.0% -58.4% 11% 11% -35.6%
≤90d 434 -48.1% -53.0% 15% 14% -25.3%
all 891 -55.4% -59.6% 13% 13% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 13% -41.9%
10% -63.5% 11% -47.5%
15% -67.0% 10% -52.6%
20% -70.2% 8% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $42.02 (match) · 3500 history records