Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
81 0x8192…e1b9 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$652 (+25%) realized +$672 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$531
other 20% +$205
crypto 2% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 46% +18.0%
≤30d 41 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 46% +18.0%
≤90d 41 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 46% +18.0%
all 41 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 46% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 46% +18.0%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 46% +6.7%
15% -8.1% 44% -3.6%
20% -17.1% 41% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$41 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$672
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $115 $113 −$3 (-2%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ 80¢ $13 $24 +$12 (+92%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 58¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$22 +74%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 +$60 +120%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 −$28 -58%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 −$10 -20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$123 +105%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $51 −$29 -57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $20 +$29 +148%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $21 −$3 -17%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $17 −$13 -77%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $8 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$11 -58%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $17 −$11 -63%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $21 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $64 +$19 +30%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 +$15 +61%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$37 +105%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $112 −$32 -28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $70 +$247 +352%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$168 +165%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 +$209 +257%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $107 −$23 -22%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $14 −$13 -89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $90 +$75 +83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $91 +$157 +173%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 +$63 +152%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $78 +$194 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $48 +$59 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $13 20m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) SELL TDK 85¢ $51 26m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $100 39m
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 49¢ $15 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 47¢ $14 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $3 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $53 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $29 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 23¢ $20 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $15 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $33 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $36 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $2 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $240 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $42 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 19¢ $22 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $54 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $63 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $35 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 42¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 100¢ $49 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.86 · official $137.76 (match) · 147 history records