Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8190…b247 politics 227 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,209 (+6%) realized +$9,997 · open +$6,212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate73%102W / 38L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$1,165per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$105,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7,322
politics 32% +$24,742
other 19% +$3,585
crypto 1% −$8
sports 1% +$49
finance 0% +$55
culture 0% +$11
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +44.4% +30.6% 56% 27% -1.0%
≤30d 95 +39.2% +25.9% 71% 36% +19.7%
≤90d 140 +74.8% +58.2% 73% 41% +8.9%
all 140 +74.8% +58.2% 73% 41% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.2% 41% +8.9%
10% +43.0% 23% -1.5%
15% ← realistic here +29.2% 17% -11.0%
20% +16.5% 13% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$769) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +101% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$671 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$105,038
Realized+$9,997
Unrealized+$6,212
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses102 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions124
Markets (closed)140 / 227
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$1,165
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 124 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $26,552 $28,139 +$1,587 (+6%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 89¢ 95¢ $13,562 $14,402 +$841 (+6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $7,728 $8,085 +$357 (+5%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $5,263 $5,550 +$287 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $3,967 $4,347 +$380 (+10%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $3,416 $3,784 +$368 (+11%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $3,344 $3,736 +$391 (+12%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $3,051 $3,176 +$125 (+4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 74¢ 94¢ $2,093 $2,661 +$568 (+27%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 83¢ 97¢ $2,211 $2,577 +$366 (+17%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $2,568 $2,495 −$73 (-3%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 92¢ 99¢ $2,310 $2,489 +$179 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $2,002 $2,172 +$170 (+8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,923 $1,929 +$6 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $1,569 $1,630 +$61 (+4%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 83¢ 94¢ $1,370 $1,547 +$176 (+13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 85¢ 97¢ $1,195 $1,353 +$157 (+13%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $1,065 $1,221 +$156 (+15%)
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $1,158 $1,186 +$28 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $901 $936 +$35 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $885 $885 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $722 $775 +$53 (+7%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $620 $673 +$53 (+8%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 85¢ $631 $639 +$8 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $595 $637 +$42 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 19 $13 −$14 -104%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Jun 19 $0 +$1 +260%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Jun 19 $570 −$570 -100%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Jun 19 $65 −$67 -104%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the Febru Jun 19 $20 −$18 -89%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Jun 19 $352 −$294 -84%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Jun 19 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Jun 19 $0 $0 -55%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 6% or more? Jun 19 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% a Jun 19 $74 +$8 +11%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $138 +$12 +9%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $902 +$151 +17%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $18,623 +$1,377 +7%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $12,848 +$325 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $1,451 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French pr Jun 18 $4 +$4 +95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $6 $0 -4%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 18 $5 $0 -10%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 Jun 18 $227 −$8 -3%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $1,508 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +38%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? Jun 17 $25 +$1,580 +6308%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $659 +$29 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $176 +$22 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $346 −$11 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $984 +$40 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 16 $216 −$3 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $582 +$13 +2%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 14 $23 −$2 -7%
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the Jun 12 $260 +$12 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $4,337 +$2,887 +67%
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $68 +$10 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 12 $233 +$10 +4%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most Jun 12 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 11 $1,046 +$235 +22%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $141 +$1 +1%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Jun 10 $6 +$1 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $650 +$64 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $755 −$59 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 09 $93 +$3 +4%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 09 $954 −$16 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $193 12m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 6% or more? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% a SELL No 100¢ $82 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $66 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 92¢ $92 4h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $1,189 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $264 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $8 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $352 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $25 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $132 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 9h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $446 9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $962 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $499 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $201 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $498 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $498 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $498 9h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 100¢ $498 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $1,448 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $192 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105,037.88 · official $105,035.69 (match) · 3500 history records