Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x818e…51e6 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-26%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 44% -9.1%
≤30d 38 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 37% -39.7%
≤90d 38 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 37% -39.7%
all 38 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 37% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 37% -39.7%
10% -12.3% 34% -45.5%
15% -20.8% 26% -50.7%
20% -28.6% 21% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 05 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$11 +1054%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records