Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x818b…a804 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% $0
politics 25% $0
economics 8% $0
world 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 12 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage88d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $95 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 23d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $95 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $95 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $95 37d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $95 37d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 39d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 40d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 45d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 64d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 65d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $96 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $96 76d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 80d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 81d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $96 87d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 87d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $73 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records