Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8189…a808
weather · 70 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$70 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)57 / 70
History coverage37d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 13 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? No 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Up 21¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? No 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$18 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +376%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +203%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Solana Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 74% −$49
crypto 12% −$13
other 12% −$2
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 89¢ $29 6m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 92¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 69¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $8 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +25.3% +13.4% 49% 39% -25.0%
≤30d 57 +25.3% +13.4% 49% 39% -25.0%
≤90d 57 +25.3% +13.4% 49% 39% -25.0%
all 57 +25.3% +13.4% 49% 39% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 39% -25.0%
10% +2.5% 28% -32.2%
15% -7.4% 25% -38.8%
20% -16.5% 23% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.83 · official $24.83 (match) · 150 history records