Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8188…940f other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$13
politics 26% −$6
sports 10% +$39
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 99 +6.1% -4.0% 12% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -13.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -21.6% 4% -26.0%
20% -29.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage122d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $233 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $357 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $418 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $416 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $168 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $405 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $408 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $407 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $247 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $434 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $398 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $241 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $188 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $248 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $203 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $203 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 55d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $189 63d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $189 65d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $163 65d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $163 65d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $167 65d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $167 66d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $208 66d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $208 66d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $211 66d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $211 66d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $219 66d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $219 67d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 67d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 67d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $188 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.96 · official $69.96 (match) · 303 history records