trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +160% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs | Jun 06 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 06 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 05 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 | Jun 04 | $1 | +$1 | +78% |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | Jun 04 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 02 | $4 | $0 | +12% |
| LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit | Jun 02 | $1 | +$1 | +127% |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Jun 01 | $1 | +$1 | +129% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff | May 25 | $5 | −$3 | -64% |
| Rockets vs. Timberwolves | Mar 26 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Pistons | Mar 24 | $8 | −$4 | -50% |
| Celtics vs. Lakers | Feb 23 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Wizards | Feb 23 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | Feb 23 | $15 | −$14 | -96% |
| Rockets vs. Knicks | Feb 22 | $6 | +$4 | +70% |
| Kings vs. Spurs | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Pelicans | Feb 22 | $15 | +$25 | +168% |
| Magic vs. Suns | Feb 22 | $1 | $0 | -38% |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | Feb 21 | $35 | −$7 | -20% |
| Bucks vs. Pelicans | Feb 21 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Feb 21 | $8 | −$1 | -17% |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Feb 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Wizards | Feb 21 | $5 | +$1 | +30% |
| Nuggets vs. Clippers | Feb 20 | $11 | −$1 | -5% |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group | Feb 20 | $2 | −$1 | -40% |
| Raptors vs. Bulls | Feb 20 | $16 | +$16 | +105% |
| Rockets vs. Hornets | Feb 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup | Feb 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | Jan 20 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. 76ers | Jan 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings | Jan 19 | $4 | +$3 | +88% |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets | Jan 19 | $4 | −$4 | -99% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Jan 18 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Lakers vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Wizards vs. Nuggets | Jan 18 | $3 | −$3 | -95% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Jan 17 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | Jan 17 | $1 | +$2 | +195% |
| Suns vs. Pistons | Jan 16 | $3 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -56.6% | -60.7% | 17% | 17% | -25.4% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 25% | 25% | -48.3% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -52.5% | -57.0% | 23% | 23% | -56.6% |
| all | 58 | -31.4% | -38.0% | 29% | 29% | -42.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.0% | 29% | -42.6% |
| 10% | -43.9% | 29% | -48.1% |
| 15% | -49.3% | 26% | -53.1% |
| 20% | -54.3% | 24% | -57.7% |