Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x817f…bf28
other · 325 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$844 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20 · open +$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$394
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses124 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)315 / 325
History coverage230d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 10 History 315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$101
14 days−$148
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on IPO day? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $163 $176 +$13 (+8%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day? No 73¢ 94¢ $51 $66 +$15 (+30%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market close on IPO day? No 87¢ 95¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+9%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $4 $24 +$20 (+481%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $37 $22 −$16 (-42%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2? Yes 37¢ 47¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 10¢ 27¢ $7 $20 +$12 (+170%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No 71¢ 93¢ $15 $19 +$5 (+31%)
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+44%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $16 −$3 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $14 +$11 +78%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $266 +$24 +9%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $230 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,355 +$34 +2%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $425 +$84 +20%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $102 −$82 -80%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 07 $314 −$314 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 04 $464 +$185 +40%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $52 +$13 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $62 +$25 +40%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $56 +$10 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $104 +$6 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $160 +$6 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $509 +$21 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 29? May 29 $43 −$22 -52%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29? May 29 $299 −$28 -9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $608 +$26 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $94 −$12 -13%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 29 $2 +$1 +48%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 29 $42 +$14 +32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 29 $188 −$123 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 28? May 29 $270 +$127 +47%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $290 +$10 +4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 28 $38 −$8 -22%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 25 $297 +$7 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 25 $239 +$7 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $196 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $51 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $18 −$2 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $15 +$27 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $16 +$34 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$706
finance 19% +$18
world 14% +$185
crypto 9% −$668
politics 7% −$108
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% −$22
tech 0% −$22
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 SELL No 66¢ $11 1m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 50¢ $39 15m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 44¢ $13 25m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 SELL No 77¢ $3 29m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY No 81¢ $16 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 35¢ $17 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 35¢ $14 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 40¢ $16 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 44¢ $14 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 34¢ $9 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 53¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 53¢ $13 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL No 53¢ $11 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 35 million views on day 2? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 54¢ $4 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 56¢ $11 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 56¢ $6 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY No 69¢ $15 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 22% -5.8%
≤30d 57 -11.3% -19.8% 49% 25% -9.9%
≤90d 147 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 27% -7.8%
all 315 -17.5% -25.4% 39% 24% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 24% -9.5%
10% -32.5% 20% -18.1%
15% -39.0% 16% -26.0%
20% -45.0% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.57 · official $395.96 (match) · 2482 history records