Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x817f…4a58 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$247 (+24%) realized +$235 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$135
14 days+$197
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$61
sports 18% +$206
crypto 7% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% +30.3%
≤30d 50 -0.0% -9.6% 38% 38% +15.2%
≤90d 63 +8.3% -2.1% 41% 41% +12.4%
all 63 +8.3% -2.1% 41% 41% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 41% +12.4%
10% -11.4% 40% +1.7%
15% -20.0% 38% -8.2%
20% -27.8% 38% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$235
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage36d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+35%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$46 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$29 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$45 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 +$51 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$52 +259%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$24 +163%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $63 +$51 +81%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 24 $2 +$6 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$74 +246%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 23 $30 −$29 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $2 +$3 +156%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $2 +$4 +187%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $30 +$19 +63%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 20 $2 +$5 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 20 $4 +$4 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 27¢ $20 7d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 10d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 10d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $63 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $52 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.57 · official $80.57 (match) · 119 history records