Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x817a…0b00 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+9%) realized +$114 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$128
other 9% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 62% -0.8%
≤30d 21 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 62% -0.8%
≤90d 28 +7.8% -2.4% 68% 61% -0.8%
all 30 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 60% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 60% -1.3%
10% -14.0% 40% -10.8%
15% -22.3% 23% -19.4%
20% -29.9% 23% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage91d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs 555 84¢ 94¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Fancy United 92¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $11 +$7 +63%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$4 -13%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$15 +29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $130 −$1 -1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $6 +$6 +97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$12 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$7 +23%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $49 +$12 +25%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $102 +$15 +15%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Looking For Laburo (BO3) - VCT Game Changers La Mar 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act Mar 22 $128 +$15 +12%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 21 $3 +$3 +82%
Valorant: Fennel vs Murash (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 21 $85 +$15 +18%
Valorant: Gods Reign vs S8UL Esports (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Group Sta Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Rival Esports vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoff Mar 21 $10 +$8 +78%
Valorant: AGELITE vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Valorant: Murash vs WEC C (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY 555 84¢ $50 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 92¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $24 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 22h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner SELL Dplus 99¢ $61 27h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 81¢ $50 28h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL ONSIDE GAMING 99¢ $18 29h
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 59¢ $10 32h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $11 32h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 87¢ $59 32h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $60 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 44h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 96¢ $100 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 96¢ $49 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 78¢ $40 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 80¢ $16 46h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 50¢ $10 46h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 94¢ $100 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 47¢ $22 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $11 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $16 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 78¢ $50 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.35 · official $110.35 (match) · 85 history records