Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x817a…0a90
other · 1280 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,642 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,575 · open −$66
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$281
Realized−$1,575
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses444 / 814
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1258 / 1280
History coverage732d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 17 History 1258 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$27
14 days+$93
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $42 $29 −$13 (-31%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 59¢ 100¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+69%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $24 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 54¢ $25 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 32¢ 32¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Türkiye 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 53¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Yes 38¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will England win on 2025-09-09? No 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Girona win on 2025-10-31? Yes 22¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-17? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Yes 29¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $49 +$52 +106%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $70 −$32 -46%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$33 +197%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 +$7 +33%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $8 −$7 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$18 +95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $18 +$8 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $11 +$15 +141%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $11 +$4 +40%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $25 +$20 +80%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$4 -23%
Spread: Venezuela (-2.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $29 +$29 +103%
Spread: Venezuela (-1.5) Jun 06 $11 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $20 −$6 -29%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $5 +$5 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $8 +$7 +95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +93%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 01 $12 +$8 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% −$808
sports 31% −$764
world 1% +$73
politics 1% −$145
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 52m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 14¢ $3 53m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 32¢ $7 56m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 56m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $4 58m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 59m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 59¢ $16 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $16 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $3 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 6h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 7h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $16 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 8h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 8h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 22h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $3 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $32 23h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 23h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $24 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -18.0% -25.8% 42% 42% -3.7%
≤30d 92 -2.8% -12.1% 45% 43% +4.7%
≤90d 282 -2.7% -11.9% 45% 44% -15.1%
all 1258 -10.1% -18.7% 35% 35% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 35% -23.2%
10% -26.4% 35% -30.5%
15% -33.6% 34% -37.2%
20% -40.1% 31% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.63 · official $284.81 · 2986 history records