Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8179…4403 world 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15,090 (+18%) realized +$15,063 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%70W / 74L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$383
14 days+$79
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$22,408
finance 6% −$342
politics 5% −$2,851
other 5% −$789
culture 4% −$1,290
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +44.8% +31.0% 100% 50% +14.9%
≤30d 38 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 128 -16.1% -24.1% 48% 40% -10.7%
all 144 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 40% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 40% +10.8%
10% -25.7% 29% +0.2%
15% -32.9% 21% -9.5%
20% -39.5% 17% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$536) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$549 vs −$288 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$15,063
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses70 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage107d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 32¢ 55¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $420 +$371 +88%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $1,000 +$12 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $692 −$143 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2,500 −$55 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $600 +$85 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $100 −$52 -52%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 08 $61 −$59 -96%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +95%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +18%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $15 +$10 +67%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $28 +$22 +82%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $759 +$116 +15%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $200 −$176 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,100 +$673 +22%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$28 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$133 +67%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$38 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$38 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $100 −$26 -26%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 30 $202 −$200 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $410 −$232 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $600 −$506 -84%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $685 −$133 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4,200 +$191 +4%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this w May 28 $68 −$67 -99%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this May 27 $13 −$12 -96%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $10 +$10 +99%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $111 +$15 +14%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $471 +$145 +31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1,100 −$35 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $100 +$89 +89%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 19 $101 +$11 +11%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this May 19 $101 +$15 +15%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top US Netflix movie this we May 19 $963 −$946 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $100 −$58 -58%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this wee May 17 $323 −$310 -96%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 17 $110 +$61 +55%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$53 +53%
Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 16 $137 −$133 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $791 3d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 92¢ $1,012 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $549 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2,445 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $69 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $685 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $48 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 10d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 32¢ $20 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 11d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 6¢ $5 13d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 4¢ $2 13d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 4¢ $2 13d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 18¢ $52 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 13d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 18d
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 90¢ $1,000 18d
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? BUY No 9¢ $10 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $600 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2,500 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $92 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $74 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $200 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $200 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $200 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.75 · official $246.75 (match) · 699 history records