Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8179…b095 other 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$64 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%161W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$3
crypto 30% +$112
politics 6% −$38
world 4% +$6
tech 2% −$16
culture 2% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.4% -3.7% 100% 33% -3.7%
≤90d 4 +11.9% +1.2% 100% 50% +1.2%
all 184 +0.3% -9.2% 88% 17% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 17% -8.0%
10% -17.9% 5% -16.8%
15% -25.8% 3% -24.8%
20% -33.1% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses161 / 23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)184 / 188
History coverage253d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 11 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 10 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 10 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$70 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$30 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 09 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 08 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$55 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 08 $25 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $25 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $25 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $25 9d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 23d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 93¢ $25 52d
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? BUY No 78¢ $25 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.87 · official $100.87 (match) · 502 history records