trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 50% | 50% | +0.8% |
| all | 6 | -19.1% | -26.8% | 50% | 50% | +0.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.8% | 50% | +0.8% |
| 10% | -33.8% | 50% | -8.8% |
| 15% | -40.2% | 33% | -17.6% |
| 20% | -46.1% | 33% | -25.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 84¢ | $214 | $829 | +$615 (+288%) |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 98¢ | $500 | $711 | +$211 (+42%) |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $423 | $273 | −$151 (-36%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $82 | $82 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 70¢ | 69¢ | $67 | $66 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Jun 17 | $249 | −$249 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $34 | −$33 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Jun 12 | $26 | −$25 | -96% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $349 | +$237 | +68% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 23 | $286 | +$88 | +31% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Apr 23 | $120 | +$104 | +87% |