Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x8175…a78b crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-42%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$51
other 14% −$1
sports 8% −$2
world 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.4% -49.7% 50% 50% -33.0%
≤30d 2 -44.4% -49.7% 50% 50% -33.0%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -8.7%
all 69 -27.2% -34.1% 35% 35% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 35% -51.1%
10% -40.4% 29% -55.8%
15% -46.2% 26% -60.0%
20% -51.5% 22% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)69 / 79
History coverage197d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 19 $1 +$1 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 $0 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 19 $1 +$3 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1 $0 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 21 $1 $0 +12%
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jan 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 06 $1 +$2 +150%
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 24 $1 +$1 +96%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 7AM ET Dec 20 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7AM ET Dec 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 17 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 15 $1 $0 +35%
XRP Up or Down - December 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - December 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 13 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 10 $1 +$1 +138%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Dec 10 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 10 $1 +$1 +127%
Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 58d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 58d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 58d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 53¢ $4 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 122d
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL No 88¢ $1 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.33 · official $10.33 (match) · 126 history records