Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8174…be40 crypto 1420 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$235 (-3%) realized −$1,152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%1043W / 655L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day132.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,101
7 days−$1,112
14 days−$1,269
30 days−$1,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$195
other 23% −$161
finance 7% −$54
economics 2% −$3
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1037 -28.9% -35.7% 49% 48% -26.4%
≤30d 1698 -16.1% -24.1% 61% 60% -19.4%
≤90d 1698 -16.1% -24.1% 61% 60% -19.4%
all 1698 -16.1% -24.1% 61% 60% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 60% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 36% -27.1%
15% -38.0% 8% -34.2%
20% -44.0% 3% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses1043 / 655
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1698 / 1420
History coverage22d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day132.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 65¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+54%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records