Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8174…203c crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%26W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
crypto 34% $0
other 16% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 20 +0.1% -9.5% 85% 0% -9.6%
all 29 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses26 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage101d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $246 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $163 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 9? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 30? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 27? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 25? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 17? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 13? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 10? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 8? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $122 27m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $122 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $124 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $162 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $163 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $104 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $82 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $143 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $15 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 71d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 86d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 90d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records