Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8173…bfee crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$96
crypto 44% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -75.6% -77.9% 20% 0% -77.6%
≤30d 5 -75.6% -77.9% 20% 0% -77.6%
≤90d 5 -75.6% -77.9% 20% 0% -77.6%
all 23 -16.7% -24.7% 57% 13% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 13% -15.0%
10% -31.9% 4% -23.2%
15% -38.5% 4% -30.6%
20% -44.5% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage563d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Canucks vs. Stars Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? Apr 07 $84 +$15 +18%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $20 −$1 -6%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $10 +$8 +79%
Pacers vs. Heat Jan 04 $77 +$1 +1%
Nets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $213 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Jan 01 $63 +$4 +6%
Will Solana hit $250 in December? Dec 26 $60 +$3 +5%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Dec 25 $55 +$5 +10%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Dec 23 $40 −$27 -68%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Dec 20 $50 +$10 +20%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Dec 14 $74 −$2 -3%
Kings vs. Pelicans Dec 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 11 $68 +$6 +8%
Ethereum above $3,500 on December 6? Dec 07 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $3,800 in December? Dec 04 $62 +$5 +7%
Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Binance? Dec 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 01 $58 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Canucks vs. Stars BUY Stars 97¢ $67 432d
Canucks vs. Stars BUY Stars 97¢ $32 432d
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? SELL Yes 13¢ $63 433d
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 433d
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $78 433d
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 433d
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 433d
Bucks vs. Pelicans SELL Bucks 74¢ $10 434d
Bucks vs. Pelicans SELL Bucks 87¢ $8 440d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 84¢ $20 440d
Thunder vs. Grizzlies BUY Thunder 56¢ $10 491d
Pacers vs. Heat BUY Pacers 99¢ $77 528d
Nets vs. Bucks SELL Nets 55¢ $77 528d
Nets vs. Bucks BUY Nets 55¢ $73 528d
Nets vs. Bucks SELL Nets 51¢ $73 528d
Nets vs. Bucks BUY Nets 48¢ $72 528d
Nets vs. Bucks SELL Nets 44¢ $72 528d
Nets vs. Bucks BUY Nets 41¢ $67 528d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? BUY No 94¢ $63 532d
Will Solana hit $250 in December? SELL No 95¢ $63 535d
Will Solana hit $250 in December? BUY No 91¢ $60 536d
Jazz vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 91¢ $55 538d
Nuggets vs. Pelicans SELL Nuggets 25¢ $13 539d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records