Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8170…ccd1
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$19 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$23 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$446
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 5 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$102 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% +$69
sports 7% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 4 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤90d 4 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% -1.2%
all 4 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 50% -1.2%
10% -30.0% 50% -10.6%
15% -36.7% 50% -19.2%
20% -42.9% 25% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.99 · official $446.02 (match) · 12 history records