Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x816e…7257 politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 1111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14,100 (-42%) realized −$12,842 · open −$1,258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 40L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$177
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$8,794
other 29% −$2,285
economics 6% −$2,021
crypto 3% −$815
world 1% −$240
tech 1% −$397
sports 1% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.4% -72.3% 0% 0% -17.7%
≤30d 4 -42.6% -48.1% 25% 25% -15.5%
≤90d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 27% 27% +43.8%
all 46 -55.3% -59.5% 13% 13% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 13% -48.1%
10% -63.4% 13% -53.1%
15% -66.9% 13% -57.6%
20% -70.2% 11% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$694) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,215 vs −$522 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1111d coverage
Net worth$2,524
Realized−$12,842
Unrealized−$1,258
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage1111d
Avg bet$617
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,234 $985 −$248 (-20%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,516 $846 −$670 (-44%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $710 $436 −$274 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $300 $242 −$59 (-20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 12¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,939 −$161 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $106 +$40 +38%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 20 $337 −$318 -94%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 19 $212 −$208 -98%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $1,457 +$3,395 +233%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $90 −$79 -87%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $22 +$16 +75%
Thailand x Cambodia declare war by Dec 31? Dec 09 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 09 $739 −$606 -82%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Dec 09 $552 −$543 -98%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Dec 09 $910 −$889 -98%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Dec 09 $131 −$98 -75%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $325–340 in 2025? Nov 27 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $340–355 in 2025? Nov 27 $149 −$149 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in October? Nov 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October? Nov 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Sep 29 $1,923 −$1,923 -100%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 29 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Sep 29 $344 −$272 -79%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Nov 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after electio Nov 11 $176 +$272 +154%
Will Trump nominate Tulsi Gabbard for Secretary of Veterans Affairs? Nov 09 $162 −$162 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 09 $632 +$2,241 +355%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 06 $694 +$1,327 +191%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Nov 06 $1,211 −$974 -80%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Nov 06 $250 −$167 -67%
Trump nominates Tulsi Gabbard to Cabinet? Nov 06 $220 −$134 -61%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 05 $147 −$147 -100%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Nov 05 $369 −$369 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Nov 04 $266 −$266 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Oct 23 $591 −$591 -100%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Jul 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ben Carson win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 11 $3,188 −$3,188 -100%
Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 19 $1,329 −$1,329 -100%
Will another woman win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 19 $6,327 −$4,911 -78%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jun 19 $1,741 −$1,221 -70%
Will another man win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? May 26 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Apr 04 $900 −$900 -100%
[Single Market] Will Nikki Haley win the U.S. 2024 Republican presiden Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $6 43m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $34 48m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $31 48m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $31 48m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $31 49m
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $52 49m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $87 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $269 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 13h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 13h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $9 13h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $9 13h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 13h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $17 24h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $4 24h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 24h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 24h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $15 24h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 42h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $41 42h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $12 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $58 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,524.23 · official $2,556.10 · 454 history records