Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x816d…47d0 weather 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+13%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 73% +9.3%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 73% +9.3%
≤90d 15 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 73% +9.3%
all 15 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 73% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 73% +9.3%
10% -13.7% 60% -1.2%
15% -22.1% 20% -10.7%
20% -29.7% 7% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.17 per $1 lost it wins $5.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$9 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$10 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 18 $17 +$6 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 100¢ $41 19m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $50 19m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $40 59m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 72¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? SELL No 10¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 28¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $31 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY No 79¢ $25 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $26 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $36 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 95¢ $25 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records