Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x816c…d7a2 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$155 (+12%) realized +$134 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +142% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +86% what you keep after slip
Net edge+86%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+118.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +141.6% +118.6% 54% 54% -16.7%
≤30d 13 +141.6% +118.6% 54% 54% -16.7%
≤90d 13 +141.6% +118.6% 54% 54% -16.7%
all 13 +141.6% +118.6% 54% 54% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +118.6% 54% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here +97.7% 38% -24.7%
15% +78.6% 23% -32.0%
20% +61.1% 8% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +142% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +253% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$40 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 82¢ 100¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$91 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$236 +887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $236 −$36 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$61 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $127 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $29 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $142 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $256 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $152 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $130 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.34 · official $104.27 · 40 history records