Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x816c…ac2c sports 59 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,167 (-25%) realized −$1,948 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,525
14 days−$1,516
30 days−$1,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$405
other 48% −$1,557
crypto 2% −$164
politics 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 29% -46.1%
≤30d 46 -25.0% -32.1% 37% 35% -32.9%
≤90d 46 -25.0% -32.1% 37% 35% -32.9%
all 46 -25.0% -32.1% 37% 35% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 35% -32.9%
10% -38.6% 35% -39.3%
15% -44.5% 28% -45.2%
20% -50.0% 24% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$146 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized−$1,948
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 59
History coverage13d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $110 $91 −$19 (-17%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $150 $37 −$112 (-75%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 29¢ 2¢ $59 $3 −$55 (-95%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $17 $1 −$17 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $35 −$24 -70%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,222 −$1,200 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$19 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 +$17 +119%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $505 −$500 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 12 $43 +$20 +45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,110 +$464 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$14 +140%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $174 −$172 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $134 +$172 +129%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $4 +$3 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $17 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$5 +127%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $11 +$3 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $4 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $305 +$320 +105%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1,057 +$867 +82%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $300 −$300 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $138 −$136 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $900 −$886 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $418 −$410 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $56 −$54 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 11¢ $124 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,222 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $152 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 4¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 49¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 9¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 3d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $94 3d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 3d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 3d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $14 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $97 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 5d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $203 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 5d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 5d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $101 5d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.05 · official $757.64 · 166 history records