Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
81 0x816b…d69d crypto 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,449 (+1%) realized +$2,822 · open −$373
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate81%240W / 58L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$762per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$346est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$5,937
crypto 41% +$2,134
other 1% +$725
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +48.4% +34.2% 100% 100% +21.9%
≤30d 31 +72.2% +55.8% 81% 42% +2.5%
≤90d 124 +20.7% +9.2% 78% 27% -5.4%
all 298 +10.1% -0.3% 81% 21% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 21% -5.7%
10% -9.9% 15% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 9% -23.0%
20% -26.6% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$965) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$201 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$2,822
Unrealized−$373
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses240 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$346
Open positions1
Markets (closed)298 / 299
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$762
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 52¢ 2¢ $384 $11 −$373 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $973 +$350 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,988 +$704 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $206 +$164 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$21 +17%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,400 +$616 +44%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $854 +$220 +26%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $469 +$235 +50%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $163 +$282 +172%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $532 +$266 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $1,048 +$237 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $499 +$162 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $495 +$135 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $137 −$60 -44%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $344 −$180 -52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $798 +$19 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $393 −$8 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $202 +$8 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1,753 +$26 +2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $3,631 +$127 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $179 −$74 -41%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $3,992 +$8 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $312 +$1 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $247 +$3 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $548 +$36 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $3,010 −$33 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $1,162 +$60 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $27 −$21 -77%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 22 $359 +$22 +6%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $677 +$62 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 22 $580 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $990 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 01 $977 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 30 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 30 $638 +$24 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 30 $2,360 +$38 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 24 $486 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 22 $990 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 22 $2,970 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 20 $1,037 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $2,970 +$29 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 20 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 20 $990 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 20 $1,980 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 20 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 20 $92 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 20 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 20 $489 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 20 $1,980 +$19 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $390 35m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $97 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $19 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $78 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $16 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $157 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $161 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $78 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $1,172 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $152 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $206 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $147 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $69 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $126 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $46 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $61 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $191 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $14 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 72¢ $22 2h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 73¢ $952 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $11.08 · 3500 history records