Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8168…6857 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,468 (+5%) realized +$3,063 · open +$405
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%79W / 55L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Fees−$724est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$2,102
14 days+$2,247
30 days+$2,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$236
world 32% +$309
crypto 10% +$3,040
politics 10% −$152
other 5% +$286
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% +$80
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 38% -17.8%
≤30d 134 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 41% -4.6%
≤90d 134 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 41% -4.6%
all 134 -3.0% -12.2% 59% 41% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 41% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 34% -13.7%
15% -28.3% 25% -22.1%
20% -35.3% 20% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$168 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$6,781
Realized+$3,063
Unrealized+$405
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses79 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$724
Open positions18
Markets (closed)134 / 153
History coverage17d
Avg bet$486
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $1,948 $2,073 +$124 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1,779 $1,831 +$52 (+3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $530 $615 +$85 (+16%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 71¢ 78¢ $356 $392 +$37 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $258 $316 +$58 (+23%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 66¢ 84¢ $196 $249 +$53 (+27%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 47¢ 62¢ $188 $248 +$60 (+32%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $186 $190 +$4 (+2%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $188 $177 −$11 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 55¢ 40¢ $220 $162 −$58 (-26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $71 $93 +$23 (+32%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? No 43¢ 44¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $136 $86 −$50 (-37%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 46¢ 80¢ $46 $80 +$34 (+74%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+1%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $18 $49 +$31 (+173%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $150 −$26 -17%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $26 +$31 +119%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $226 −$226 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $48 −$9 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $219 +$54 +25%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $549 +$15 +3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$127 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $850 −$261 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$29 +28%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $231 −$31 -14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $159 −$29 -18%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $165 +$25 +15%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $86 +$6 +7%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $144 +$56 +39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$46 +45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $186 +$108 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $342 +$271 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $236 +$212 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $272 +$98 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $164 +$118 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 14 $210 −$72 -34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $202 +$122 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$66 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $581 −$99 -17%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $261 −$3 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $624 +$6 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$32 -39%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $105 +$67 +64%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $339 +$170 +50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$33 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $12 +$28 +245%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $900 +$2 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $156 +$32 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $712 +$14 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,337 −$959 -72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $190 −$30 -16%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $219 +$13 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,356 −$559 -41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $958 +$25 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $862 +$38 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,610 −$1,250 -48%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $444 +$48 +11%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $47 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $99 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $210 49m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $116 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 66¢ $264 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 66¢ $264 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $93 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $610 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $42 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $220 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $661 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $290 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $89 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 22h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 57¢ $57 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $54 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,780.77 · official $6,780.79 (match) · 1408 history records