Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8166…6f00 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate77%27W / 8L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% +$35
other 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 17% +2.7%
≤90d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 8% +2.1%
all 35 +1.2% -8.4% 77% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 6% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 92% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×19.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×65.28 per $1 lost it wins $65.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses27 / 8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)35 / 44
History coverage652d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 4? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $116 +$17 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 30-April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $105 +$18 +17%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 14? Nov 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $220 on October 14? Nov 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 14? Nov 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Oct 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi May 31 $58 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? May 26 $26 $0 +1%
GPT-5 released in 2024? May 26 $26 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Will Andrés Ojeda win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Nov 21 $188 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 21 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Oct 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 17 $509 +$1 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 17 $1,197 +$1 +0%
Will a Democrat win Massachusetts Presidential Election? Sep 30 $1,935 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Alabama Presidential Election? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.47 · official $56.47 (match) · 490 history records