Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8165…ba12 sports 421 markets active 3d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,010 (-3%) realized −$1,010 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%206W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$572est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$167
14 days−$1,833
30 days−$1,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,850
other 2% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +5.8% -4.2% 52% 50% -18.5%
≤30d 199 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 47% -15.6%
≤90d 421 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 46% -13.2%
all 421 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 46% -13.2%
10% -21.9% 42% -21.5%
15% -29.4% 36% -29.1%
20% -36.3% 31% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$56 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,010
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses206 / 215
Est. fees paid−$572
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 421
History coverage64d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$43 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$23 +112%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 +$17 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$37 +156%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$13 +64%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 +$2 +3%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$15 +84%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$12 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$6 -48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$10 +121%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $173 −$44 -26%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $53 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$17 +46%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $8 −$8 -93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $90 −$88 -98%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $99 +$90 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $35 +$30 +84%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$83 +263%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$24 +83%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $61 +$55 +90%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$63 +247%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $18 +$64 +346%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$4 +23%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$4 +25%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Valorant: Oasis Gaming vs BOOM Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$11 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$36 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $17 +$9 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$1 -16%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $32 −$31 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $23 +$8 +36%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$13 +134%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $58 −$8 -14%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $31 −$31 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 38¢ $66 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 10¢ $17 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $60 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $43 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $57 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $20 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $39 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $60 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $23 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $33 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 3d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 39¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 71¢ $22 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $32 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 21¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 28¢ $24 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $24 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 21¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $8 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $18 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 17¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 18¢ $4 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 42¢ $31 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 53¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 891 history records