Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8164…7564 politics 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$996 (+0%) realized +$996 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%31W / 147L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,320per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$30
14 days−$12
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$125
other 41% +$149
sports 9% +$937
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 62 +2.8% -7.0% 13% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 120 +1.8% -7.9% 8% 5% -9.1%
all 178 +2.4% -7.4% 17% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 12% -9.2%
10% -16.2% 11% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 10% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,886) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$7 · ×9.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses31 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,320
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $839 $839 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,128 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,794 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,794 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $144 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,999 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,571 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,023 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,944 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,338 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,904 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $768 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $60 +$84 +140%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,841 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $74 +$32 +44%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $548 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,235 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,745 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $375 +$2 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,376 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,078 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $430 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $3,939 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,326 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $410 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $3,156 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $415 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $3,398 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $3,738 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 22m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,027 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $682 19h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $683 21h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 23h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $978 29h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $979 30h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 44h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 46h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $622 47h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $623 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $703 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $704 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $739 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $745 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $746 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $791 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $792 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $843 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $845 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $754 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $755 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $646 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $313 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $313 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $647 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $823 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.94 · official $838.94 (match) · 638 history records