Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
81 0x8164…bf34 crypto 1811 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate86%1593W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$91
14 days−$95
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -7.7% -16.5% 83% 28% -18.0%
≤30d 1461 -3.1% -12.4% 85% 46% -12.2%
≤90d 1861 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 50% -11.5%
all 1861 -2.3% -11.6% 86% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 50% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 4% -20.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1593 / 268
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1861 / 1811
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$3 -3153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.22 · official $2.22 (match) · 3500 history records