Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8162…5ae7 weather 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$5
world 27% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +81.0% +63.8% 100% 100% +63.8%
≤30d 8 +7.0% -3.2% 25% 12% -11.8%
≤90d 8 +7.0% -3.2% 25% 12% -11.8%
all 8 +7.0% -3.2% 25% 12% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 12% -11.8%
10% -12.5% 12% -20.3%
15% -20.9% 12% -28.0%
20% -28.7% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? No 88¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? Jun 02 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 02 $92 −$4 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 02 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 02 $10 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $69 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 54¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? SELL No 79¢ $18 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 3? SELL No 81¢ $28 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? SELL No 75¢ $87 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 81¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 77¢ $46 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 87¢ $31 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? BUY No 78¢ $46 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 3? BUY No 81¢ $11 14d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) SELL Knicks 81¢ $5 14d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) SELL Knicks 82¢ $10 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 96¢ $69 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 96¢ $8 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 97¢ $8 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 14d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 86¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 14d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Knicks 84¢ $5 14d
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) BUY Knicks 86¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.84 · official $15.84 (match) · 29 history records