Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x815f…1eef sports 1110 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45,720 (+6%) realized +$46,295 · open −$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%575W / 523L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$660per market
Trades / day196.3pace
Fees−$9,979est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33,222
7 days+$16,949
14 days+$52,359
30 days+$43,923
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$91,377
other 1% +$2,253
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 559 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 49% -5.1%
≤30d 1098 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 52% -3.9%
≤90d 1098 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 52% -3.9%
all 1098 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 52% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 52% -3.9%
10% -15.7% 51% -13.1%
15% ← realistic here -23.9% 49% -21.5%
20% -31.3% 40% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$897) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$528 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$16,494
Realized+$46,295
Unrealized−$575
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses575 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9,979
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1098 / 1110
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$660
Trades / day196.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 84¢ $1,653 $2,408 +$755 (+46%)
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Toronto Marlies 49¢ 100¢ $1,168 $2,375 +$1,207 (+103%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53¢ 54¢ $2,133 $2,153 +$20 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 59¢ 81¢ $921 $1,266 +$345 (+37%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $1,176 $1,151 −$26 (-2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 47¢ 96¢ $520 $1,058 +$537 (+103%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 73¢ 74¢ $855 $861 +$6 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 46¢ $829 $838 +$9 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 50¢ $537 $542 +$5 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 50¢ $527 $512 −$16 (-3%)
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa Mana Kawamura 69¢ 69¢ $438 $441 +$3 (+1%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Rina Saigo 64¢ 26¢ $960 $398 −$562 (-59%)
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Kristiana Sidorova 62¢ 66¢ $372 $393 +$21 (+6%)
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Athletics 47¢ 20¢ $940 $390 −$550 (-59%)
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Keisuke Saitoh 61¢ 73¢ $305 $365 +$60 (+20%)
ITF Mohammedia: Aya El Aouni vs Ekaterina Perelygina Ekaterina Perelygina 67¢ 68¢ $342 $350 +$8 (+2%)
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Athletics 36¢ 12¢ $572 $183 −$389 (-68%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $178 $175 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ 50¢ $164 $150 −$13 (-8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Over 39¢ 10¢ $534 $130 −$404 (-76%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ 41¢ $104 $100 −$5 (-5%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Under 50¢ 48¢ $80 $77 −$2 (-3%)
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Ikumi Yamazaki 33¢ 16¢ $113 $57 −$57 (-50%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 46¢ 4¢ $564 $55 −$508 (-90%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner TDK 45¢ 46¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 473 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $507 −$507 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $819 −$819 -100%
Burgos vs. Granada Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $291 −$291 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
ITF Wichita: Reese Brantmeier vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 17 $322 −$322 -100%
Washington Spirit vs. Seattle Reign FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
COD Meknès vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $665 −$665 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $740 −$740 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $838 −$838 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $813 −$813 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $603 −$603 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 17 $698 −$698 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Jun 17 $858 −$858 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $812 −$812 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $588 −$588 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $876 −$876 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
AD Tarma vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $532 −$532 -100%
Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 17 $654 −$654 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $441 −$441 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys Jun 17 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $484 −$484 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $515 −$515 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $554 −$554 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $395 −$395 -100%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Mathys Erhard Jun 17 $698 −$698 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Bilbao Basket Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 17 $482 −$482 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $613 −$613 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $633 −$633 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 17 $267 −$267 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $542 −$542 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $411 −$411 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $543 44m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $153 50m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 46¢ $420 55m
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 64¢ $970 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 47¢ $9 1h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 36¢ $572 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 47¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 47¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 47¢ $941 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $155 1h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $653 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 47¢ $239 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $34 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $38 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $295 1h
Set 1 Winner: Matsuda vs Maklakova BUY Maklakova 58¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $179 1h
Set 1 Winner: Matsuda vs Maklakova BUY Maklakova 58¢ $584 1h
Set 1 Winner: Matsuda vs Maklakova BUY Maklakova 58¢ $587 1h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Ikumi Yamazaki 33¢ $116 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $1,674 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $250 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $307 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $182 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 45¢ $54 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $535 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $106 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,187 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $862 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,494.46 · official $16,708.93 · 3500 history records