Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x815f…8a76 crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 688d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$140 (+3%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate52%91W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$153
14 days+$185
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$119
crypto 21% −$18
economics 12% −$43
other 9% +$47
world 6% −$51
tech 1% +$29
sports 1% +$2
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +59.4% +44.3% 100% 80% +26.2%
≤30d 8 +50.5% +36.2% 100% 75% +21.3%
≤90d 9 +33.8% +21.0% 89% 67% +16.9%
all 174 -0.0% -9.5% 52% 16% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 16% -8.1%
10% -18.2% 8% -16.9%
15% -26.1% 7% -24.9%
20% -33.3% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

688d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses91 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage688d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $31 +$59 +187%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $131 +$37 +29%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $103 +$17 +17%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $61 +$39 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $197 +$3 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $128 +$82 +64%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Robin Kelly be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $132 −$103 -79%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $402 +$6 +2%
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Feb 04 $350 −$30 -9%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 04 $389 +$45 +12%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Jan 31 $145 +$5 +4%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Jan 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 30 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 05 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4PM ET Sep 25 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3PM ET Sep 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 5PM ET Sep 24 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 3AM ET Sep 24 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 1AM ET Sep 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 12AM ET Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 2AM ET Sep 24 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 8PM ET Sep 24 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 9PM ET Sep 24 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7PM ET Sep 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3PM ET Sep 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6PM ET Sep 23 $7 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2PM ET Sep 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1PM ET Sep 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 2PM ET Sep 23 $3 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 10AM ET Sep 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 5AM ET Sep 23 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6AM ET Sep 23 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2AM ET Sep 23 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 1AM ET Sep 23 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 11PM ET Sep 23 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 12AM ET Sep 23 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9PM ET Sep 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10PM ET Sep 23 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8PM ET Sep 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3PM ET Sep 23 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4PM ET Sep 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 2PM ET Sep 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12AM ET Sep 22 $7 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 99¢ $62 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 77¢ $131 2d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 34¢ $31 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 3d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $103 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 12d
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY No 98¢ $197 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 61¢ $37 30d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 61¢ $91 30d
Will Robin Kelly be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 114d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $28 114d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 133d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 133d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 133d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 133d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $280 133d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $288 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $8 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $318 140d
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $320 140d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 141d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY No 100¢ $172 141d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 743 history records