Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x815b…a1c7 sports 649 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$264 (+1%) realized +$210 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%241W / 407L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$1,172
14 days−$1,290
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$373
other 27% −$517
crypto 2% −$160
weather 2% +$193
politics 0% −$16
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -17.9% -25.7% 29% 29% -27.3%
≤30d 305 -6.7% -15.6% 38% 36% -11.0%
≤90d 648 -4.3% -13.4% 37% 35% -10.7%
all 648 -4.3% -13.4% 37% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 35% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 33% -19.3%
15% -29.3% 30% -27.1%
20% -36.2% 26% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$210
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses241 / 407
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions1
Markets (closed)648 / 649
History coverage44d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Solana Sierra 36¢ 100¢ $30 $84 +$54 (+179%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 243 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $4 +$12 +262%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $20 +$26 +129%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $36 +$19 +53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $92 −$35 -38%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$33 -64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $31 +$55 +180%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $71 +$110 +154%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$13 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $41 +$80 +196%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $41 +$18 +44%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$5 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $61 +$97 +158%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $56 +$32 +58%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $20 +$23 +113%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $41 +$39 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $306 +$180 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1,849 −$459 -25%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 36¢ $31 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 22¢ $31 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $16 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 69¢ $54 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 44¢ $36 17h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 27¢ $4 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $57 17h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $49 17h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 18h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 43¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 35¢ $31 27h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes $18 36h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 45h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 49¢ $30 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under $0 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $31 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $101 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No $0 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 26¢ $20 2d
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 24¢ $41 3d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 29¢ $20 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.85 · official $83.85 (match) · 1316 history records