Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x8154…6305 crypto 332 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-4%) realized −$417 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate68%225W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$314
14 days−$314
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$326
weather 0% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 67% -12.5%
≤30d 328 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 67% -12.5%
≤90d 328 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 67% -12.5%
all 330 -3.7% -12.9% 68% 66% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 66% -12.5%
10% -21.2% 48% -20.9%
15% -28.8% 24% -28.5%
20% -35.8% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses225 / 105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)330 / 332
History coverage129d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 50¢ 44¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 65¢ 40¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$33 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$16 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$11 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$6 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$22 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$30 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$18 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $27 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $27 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $27 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $24 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.26 · official $46.70 · 585 history records