Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8154…12d9
crypto · 5 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$97 -46%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 67¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$35 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -48.6% -53.5% 40% 20% -51.3%
≤30d 5 -48.6% -53.5% 40% 20% -51.3%
≤90d 5 -48.6% -53.5% 40% 20% -51.3%
all 5 -48.6% -53.5% 40% 20% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.5% 20% -51.3%
10% ← realistic here -57.9% 20% -56.0%
15% -62.0% 20% -60.2%
20% -65.7% 0% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records