Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x8152…5b51 crypto 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$517 (+2%) realized +$124 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%118W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day151.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$82
sports 7% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +2.3% -7.5% 83% 50% -9.1%
≤30d 143 +2.3% -7.5% 83% 50% -9.1%
≤90d 143 +2.3% -7.5% 83% 50% -9.1%
all 143 +2.3% -7.5% 83% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 50% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 21% -17.8%
15% -24.4% 10% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$130 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses118 / 25
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage2d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day151.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 60¢ 68¢ $215 $242 +$28 (+13%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 52¢ 86¢ $107 $177 +$70 (+66%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $196 +$91 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $55 +$18 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$30 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$76 -63%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$20 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$10 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$19 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $95 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$67 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$8 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $115 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $114 +$11 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $179 +$27 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $160 +$56 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $264 +$37 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $237 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$48 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $108 +$15 +14%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. SC Recife end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $95 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $171 +$22 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $161 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $160 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $146 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $142 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $270 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $213 −$153 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $363 +$44 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $430 −$316 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $367 −$50 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $333 +$75 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $285 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$46 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $272 +$13 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $218 51m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $122 52m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $55 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $44 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $75 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $61 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $116 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $122 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $125 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $60 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $119 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $57 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $58 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.40 · official $419.40 (match) · 318 history records