Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x814f…aeec
other · 530 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,227 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,204 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$153
Realized−$1,204
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses142 / 383
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)525 / 530
History coverage131d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 5 History 525 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$1,883
30 days−$1,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $35 $21 −$14 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$57 +286%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will IK Start win on 2026-04-30? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $260 −$260 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $141 −$141 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. IK Start: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1440-1479 tweets in April 2026? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 06 $359 −$359 -100%
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -16%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $71 −$68 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $14 +$7 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $61 +$10 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$3 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 +$41 +165%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $16 −$13 -80%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 01 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3? Apr 30 $16 +$7 +46%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $237 +$98 +41%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -91%
Will Trump say "Mustache" in April? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -84%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $21 −$11 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 29 $5 +$12 +243%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 29 $350 +$39 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 28 $16 +$11 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $24 +$11 +46%
CSKA Moscow vs. Enisey Krasnoyarsk Apr 27 $6 −$4 -65%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $75 +$54 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 27 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $170 +$50 +30%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $24 +$234 +977%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% +$332
sports 35% −$1,618
crypto 8% +$25
politics 4% +$65
finance 4% +$25
world 2% −$59
economics 0% −$6
tech 0% +$5
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $106 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $77 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 7d
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Carole Monnet 3¢ $3 8d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 66¢ $71 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +42.8% +29.2% 50% 50% +63.6%
≤30d 30 -48.9% -53.8% 23% 20% -88.7%
≤90d 328 -42.2% -47.7% 22% 21% -26.7%
all 525 +3.7% -6.2% 27% 25% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 25% -21.3%
10% -15.1% 23% -28.8%
15% -23.3% 21% -35.7%
20% -30.8% 18% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.26 · official $153.26 (match) · 1301 history records