trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 08 | $30 | +$5 | +17% |
| Blue Jackets vs. Flyers | Apr 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 14 | $56 | +$5 | +9% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 26 | $16 | +$3 | +20% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 24 | $2 | +$6 | +317% |
| Jets vs. Rangers | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 | Mar 23 | $106 | +$98 | +92% |
| Suns vs. Bucks | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Heat | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Raptors | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Panthers vs. Kraken | Mar 16 | $1 | +$2 | +113% |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | Mar 14 | $1 | +$2 | +203% |
| Mavericks vs. Grizzlies | Mar 14 | $3 | +$2 | +52% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January? | Feb 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 50% | 42% | +35.4% |
| all | 15 | +8.2% | -2.1% | 53% | 47% | +35.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.1% | 47% | +35.6% |
| 10% | -11.5% | 33% | +22.6% |
| 15% | -20.1% | 33% | +10.8% |
| 20% | -27.9% | 33% | -0.1% |