Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x814d…b842
politics · 291 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$12,823 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,192 · open +$2,343
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52,591
Realized+$11,192
Unrealized+$2,343
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses62 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions203
Markets (closed)138 / 291
History coverage25d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day132.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 203 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days+$978
14 days+$5,004
30 days+$11,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 50¢ 67¢ $10,669 $14,400 +$3,731 (+35%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $3,127 $4,103 +$976 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2,740 $2,728 −$11 (-0%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $3,526 $2,699 −$827 (-23%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $999 $2,333 +$1,334 (+133%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 87¢ $2,089 $2,149 +$60 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1,543 $1,867 +$323 (+21%)
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $1,421 $1,643 +$222 (+16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 45¢ 56¢ $900 $1,130 +$230 (+26%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $1,226 $1,050 −$176 (-14%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1,148 $1,007 −$141 (-12%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $884 $933 +$49 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $729 $883 +$154 (+21%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 66¢ 92¢ $620 $865 +$246 (+40%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 30¢ 44¢ $573 $864 +$290 (+51%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 59¢ $430 $630 +$200 (+47%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 80¢ $369 $578 +$209 (+57%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 80¢ 60¢ $720 $542 −$179 (-25%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $479 $497 +$19 (+4%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 37¢ 47¢ $358 $453 +$95 (+27%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 74¢ 84¢ $351 $399 +$49 (+14%)
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $310 $385 +$75 (+24%)
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 46¢ 42¢ $383 $346 −$36 (-10%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 65¢ 70¢ $317 $343 +$26 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No 14¢ 24¢ $189 $331 +$142 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $247 $0 +0%
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 11 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 11 $69 +$3 +5%
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 11 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $270 −$249 -92%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -15%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 10 $17 +$77 +456%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $9,619 +$2,806 +29%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Tom Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Amy Phan West advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +195%
Will Richard Pan advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Ralph Nwobi advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $0 +$239 +175286%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $245 +$9 +4%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $962 −$269 -28%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $1,942 −$1,687 -87%
Will David Atchley be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 09 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1,250 −$312 -25%
Will "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" win Best Musical a Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will "Schmigadoon!" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $115 +$1 +0%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $98 −$27 -28%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $224 −$224 -100%
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $339 +$22 +6%
Will "The Lost Boys" win Best Book of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Award Jun 08 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $31 +$14 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $480 +$190 +40%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,304 +$781 +24%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $18 +$2 +8%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $27 −$2 -9%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $427 −$61 -14%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $806 −$87 -11%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $33 −$9 -26%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $143 +$376 +263%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $311 −$69 -22%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $19 +$29 +147%
Will Alireza Firouzja win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $156 −$96 -62%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $139 −$66 -48%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $105 +$13 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 51% +$5,047
other 42% −$571
sports 6% +$9,447
world 1% −$373
culture 0% +$24
crypto 0% +$15
economics 0% −$45
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $49 12m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $239 18m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 19m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 20m
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21m
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 34¢ $2 21m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $225 21m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 21m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $12 21m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 42¢ $5 23m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $14 25m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $9 27m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 36m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 44m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 72¢ $6 45m
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 46m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 46m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46m
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $7 46m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 47m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+75.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +40.3% +27.0% 43% 22% -6.5%
≤30d 138 +94.4% +75.9% 45% 32% -2.2%
≤90d 138 +94.4% +75.9% 45% 32% -2.2%
all 138 +94.4% +75.9% 45% 32% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover132.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +75.9% 32% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +59.0% 27% -11.5%
15% +43.7% 21% -20.1%
20% +29.6% 17% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,591.35 · official $52,601.19 (match) · 3500 history records