Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x814c…7646 crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%74W / 1L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 10% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 75 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses74 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage238d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 24 $6 $0 +4%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 19? Jun 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 06 $4 $0 +6%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? Apr 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 15 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? Apr 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $116 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Apr 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $119 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 11 $117 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 25? Feb 27 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $92,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $105 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 7d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 7d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 7d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 7d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $110 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $112 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $4 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 48d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $4 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $6 52d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $4 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $112 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 70d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 98¢ $4 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $118 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $118 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $116 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $112 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $115 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $118 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.36 · official $121.36 (match) · 156 history records