Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x8147…7f6c sports 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,238 (-6%) realized −$3,237 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%68W / 54L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$510
7 days+$675
14 days+$675
30 days+$2,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$5,563
sports 32% −$1,518
other 12% +$2,085
politics 4% +$1,912
world 1% +$95
weather 1% +$116
economics 1% −$174
culture 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +29.5% +17.2% 83% 83% +14.2%
≤30d 13 +50.6% +36.3% 85% 85% +67.3%
≤90d 25 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 52% -31.9%
all 122 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 52% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 52% -14.4%
10% -25.6% 40% -22.6%
15% -32.8% 30% -30.1%
20% -39.4% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$350 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$3,237
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses68 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage460d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$92 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $413 +$77 +19%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $303 +$132 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$121 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$114 +110%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $112 +$59 +53%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $302 +$38 +13%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $202 +$131 +65%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $201 +$64 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $502 +$73 +14%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $690 +$2,097 +304%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Apr 21 $214 −$212 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$29 +57%
Claude 4.7 released by April 17? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Apr 16 $100 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 16 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 16 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 16 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 12 $4,638 −$4,638 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 12 $3,390 +$2,248 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 12 $700 +$559 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 12 $3,563 +$948 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 11 $1,000 −$651 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 11 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 10 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 10 $200 +$64 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 09 $300 +$91 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $1,533 +$244 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 09 $600 +$132 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 09 $1,000 +$298 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 09 $584 +$59 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 09 $300 +$107 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 09 $200 +$165 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 09 $547 +$272 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 09 $220 −$214 -97%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $500 +$224 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 09 $500 +$104 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 08 $1,100 +$157 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 08 $680 +$55 +8%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Stars vs. Senators Feb 07 $240 −$142 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 6m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $490 11m
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Execration 100¢ $435 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 85¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 82¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 2h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Execration 69¢ $303 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 83¢ $303 2h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles SELL Samsung Lions 51¢ $172 2d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 32¢ $112 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $101 6d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $202 6d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 75¢ $201 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $201 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $502 6d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 96¢ $2,787 18d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 4¢ $10 18d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 29¢ $206 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 29¢ $206 32d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 21¢ $103 34d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 21¢ $103 34d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 19¢ $62 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.78 · official $398.78 (match) · 348 history records