Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x813e…de87 crypto 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%145W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$7
14 days−$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$64
sports 6% +$66
other 5% −$9
weather 3% −$17
politics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +23.2% +11.4% 38% 38% +13.4%
≤30d 97 -10.3% -18.8% 25% 25% -6.3%
≤90d 140 -16.2% -24.2% 24% 24% +0.7%
all 410 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 22% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 22% -10.2%
10% -32.1% 20% -18.8%
15% -38.6% 19% -26.6%
20% -44.6% 19% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses145 / 265
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)410 / 418
History coverage241d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +300%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +585%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$5 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 35m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 45h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 47h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.44 · official $8.44 (match) · 735 history records