Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x813e…5d51 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,185 (+21%) realized +$3,232 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%28W / 128L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day101.8pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$875
crypto 1% −$63
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -58.9% -62.8% 17% 14% -46.5%
≤30d 153 -39.1% -44.9% 18% 16% -9.7%
≤90d 156 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 16% -15.2%
all 156 -40.2% -45.9% 18% 16% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.9% 16% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -51.1% 16% -23.3%
15% -55.8% 15% -30.8%
20% -60.2% 13% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$324 vs −$78 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$3,232
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses28 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)156 / 166
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day101.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $39 $26 −$13 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$13 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $12 $4 −$9 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$22 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $23 +$90 +386%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$33 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $27 −$24 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$14 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $18 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.13 · official $84.13 (match) · 3500 history records