Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
81 0x813c…9ea0 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$171 (+13%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$5
sports 23% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -30.7%
≤90d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -30.7%
all 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 25% -30.7%
10% -45.7% 25% -37.3%
15% -51.0% 25% -43.4%
20% -55.8% 25% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$623 vs −$309 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage17d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $477 −$469 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $161 −$159 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $377 +$623 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $113 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $161 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $377 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records