Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

81 0x813b…ca44 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$382 (-22%) realized −$377 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip

Net edge+98%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%3W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$83

30 days−$400

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+97.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	12	+118.4%	+97.6%	25%	25%	-31.4%
≤90d	12	+118.4%	+97.6%	25%	25%	-31.4%
all	12	+118.4%	+97.6%	25%	25%	-31.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+97.6%	25%	-31.4%
10%	+78.7%	25%	-38.0%
15%	+61.4%	25%	-44.0%
20%	+45.6%	25%	-49.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +118% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +300% → late -63% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$95 vs −$76 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized−$377

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses3 / 9

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage27d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	G2	42¢	29¢	$15	$10	−$5 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 06	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 06	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 06	$31	+$18	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 06	$26	−$26	-100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L	Jun 04	$6	−$6	-98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 01	$1,426	−$530	-37%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	May 26	$70	+$139	+199%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	May 26	$9	−$8	-96%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	May 26	$26	−$25	-95%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	May 26	$5	−$5	-94%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	May 26	$11	−$10	-94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	May 23	$27	+$128	+480%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY G2	42¢	$15	23m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	80¢	$111	33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	28¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$5	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$26	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$26	12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L	BUY MIBR Academy	27¢	$5	14d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L	BUY MIBR Academy	24¢	$1	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	16¢	$130	18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$762	18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$766	20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	83¢	$430	20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	75¢	$234	20d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	SELL No	91¢	$55	23d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY No	35¢	$22	24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	87¢	$154	24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	24d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY No	22¢	$5	24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	23¢	$9	24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	24d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY No	17¢	$22	24d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY No	3¢	$5	24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	28¢	$32	24d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	4¢	$11	24d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.