Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8138…3c88 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,886 (+3%) realized +$10,358 · open +$528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate63%63W / 37L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$3,203per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$8,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$324
30 days−$7,373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$28,203
crypto 19% −$12,954
economics 12% +$850
sports 3% −$1,492
politics 2% +$71
world 2% −$2,047
finance 1% −$1,033
weather 1% −$699
tech 0% +$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -46.0% -51.1% 14% 14% -49.2%
≤90d 7 -46.0% -51.1% 14% 14% -49.2%
all 100 -5.3% -14.3% 63% 25% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 25% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 16% -15.6%
15% -30.0% 13% -23.7%
20% -36.9% 7% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$3,989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$627 vs −$781 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$8,230
Realized+$10,358
Unrealized+$528
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses63 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)100 / 106
History coverage500d
Avg bet$3,203
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 33¢ 80¢ $1,091 $2,621 +$1,529 (+140%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1,700 $1,810 +$110 (+6%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,358 $1,364 +$6 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $1,245 $1,263 +$18 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,153 $1,150 −$3 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1,155 $23 −$1,133 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $463 −$62 -14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $845 −$262 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $398 −$381 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $6,000 −$5,999 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 05 $1,056 −$1,002 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,738 +$3,819 +102%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4,381 −$3,485 -80%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 09 $900 +$100 +11%
Will another company be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $3 $0 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 26 $14,309 +$121 +1%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $560 +$170 +30%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Feb 10 $209 +$83 +40%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $917 −$67 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 06 $10 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 05 $4,347 +$4 +0%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 02 $2,790 +$850 +30%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 02 $342 +$134 +39%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 02 $2,624 +$404 +15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $3,550 −$981 -28%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $1,177 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $3,989 +$4 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $1,053 −$878 -83%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Jan 09 $496 −$495 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $9,987 −$1,489 -15%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $215 +$275 +128%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1,398 +$5 +0%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 03 $500 +$10 +2%
PYUSD depeg by December 31? Jan 01 $3,780 +$63 +2%
USDC depeg by December 31? Jan 01 $7,632 +$72 +1%
DAI depeg by December 31? Jan 01 $5,704 +$71 +1%
USDS depeg by December 31? Jan 01 $5,166 +$103 +2%
GHO depeg by December 31? Jan 01 $6,913 +$79 +1%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $1,086 −$1,086 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $4,010 +$640 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 18 $598 −$190 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $2,281 +$37 +2%
Will Time announce Person of the Year on December 11? Dec 11 $7,761 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $458 +$12 +3%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $224 −$203 -90%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $180 +$308 +171%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Dec 11 $5,861 −$14 -0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8? Dec 08 $1,888 +$843 +45%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 08 $31,314 +$250 +1%
Over $225M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $10,739 +$11 +0%
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $27,016 +$15,211 +56%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $5,784 +$120 +2%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $500 +$141 +28%
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $153 −$118 -77%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 17 $16,029 −$2,474 -15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $17,168 −$465 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,358 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,154 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $653 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $592 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 41¢ $400 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $34 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $264 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $140 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $24 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $10 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $4 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $15 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $1 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $2 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $22 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $2 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $232 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $288 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $453 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $392 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 18¢ $80 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 18¢ $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 18¢ $173 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 17¢ $145 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY No 10¢ $700 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY No 10¢ $12 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY No 10¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY No 10¢ $22 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,230.34 · official $8,230.34 (match) · 2401 history records